Same squad, same season, two completely different football clubs.
City took nine points from 15 league games under Liam Manning (17 games in all competitions). Under Philippe Clement, they have earned 42 from 22.
Yes, I’m stating the obvious, and, yes, we’ve all done the calculations to see where it may take us if this miracle continues. But what I haven’t done (you may have already) is to extrapolate those respective runs across a full 46-game Championship campaign.
I’ll not bother teasing you with the answer (there’s a clue in the headline). The answer is 28 versus 88. One gets you relegated to the third tier. The other, in most seasons, gets you promoted automatically.
PPG projections are blunt instruments, of course, and no team (even one under Clement) can maintain the same rate from August to May. But it offers an illustration of the swing we City supporters have lived through this season, not to mention the sheer volume of damage done before Clement walked through Colney door.
Manning snail pace: 0.60 PPG
Two wins, three draws, ten defeats. Norwich under Manning were the first side in Championship history to lose their opening seven home league games. By the time he was sacked on 8th November, City were 23rd with nine points, having scored a pathetic 14 goals in 17 matches.
Projected across 46 games, that 0.60 PPG produces 27.6 points. For context, typically you need 46 to 50 points to survive. A full season of Manning would have sent City into League One for the first time since 2009.
Yes, I know we know, but it’s worth repeating as it puts what follows into context…
Clement greyhound pace: 1.91 PPG
Since Clement took charge, the transformation has been, in his own words, “remarkable”. Thirteen wins from 22 league games, five wins in the last six at Carrow Road, and 24 points from the last 30 available. Unsurprisingly, City currently top the Championship form table.
Projected over 46 games, 1.91 PPG delivers 87.9 points. That would have been enough for a top-two finish in the majority of recent Championship seasons. Automatic promotion territory, comfortably.
Cool, right?
“I think it’s remarkable, and it’s a remarkable performance of the squad to have nine points out of 15 games, and then in the next 22 to get, what is it, 42 points,” Clement said after Saturday’s 2-0 win over Preston. “That’s an amazing amount of points the team has taken until now, but I put the standards high.”
The reality gap
Had Clement’s 1.91 PPG been the rate from opening day, those first 15 games would have produced roughly 29 points instead of nine. That’s 20 points City never collected, points that would have them breathing down the neck of second-placed Boro rather than sitting 12th and 19 points adrift.
The current combined record gives City 51 points from 37 games (1.38 PPG), projecting to around 63 points over a full season. Respectable. Mid-table, maybe the fringes of the play-offs. But a million miles from where Clement’s pace alone suggests this squad is capable of taking us.
The football has been good, the results at Carrow Road have improved dramatically, and, most importantly, NR1 is a fun place to be again.
None of which changes the arithmetic. Clement has been coaching like a promotion-winning head coach for four months. But those first 15 games made sure it doesn’t really matter.
But … just imagine if this carries over into 2026-27. Just imagine.
Over to you, Mr Knapper. Please give St Philippe whatever he desires,
OTBC.
