Most of the major betting firms had Norwich City as one of the promotion favourites in the Championship along with Newcastle United back in August. Their recent form has seen them drop to eighth in the league. With the title and automatic promotion being well out of sight then the best that the Canaries can hope for is a play off spot.
So what is wrong at Carrow Road? Is it just a bad period in what is an extremely long 46 game season? Are there underlying problems with the team and the manager? These are questions that need to be asked and are probably being discussed at board room level within the club.
Its Not Just Norwich City
First of all, Norwich City are not the only team to perform well under their expected pre-season odds. Many teams have done this down the years in all divisions. The bookies don’t have a great deal of data to go on before the season starts and so pre-season odds are patchy at best. We only have to look at the Premier League for proof of that. The bookies had the two Manchester clubs as title favourites in August with the arrival of Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. Both teams were effectively out of title contention by January.
So it isn’t just Norwich City that are struggling to live up to pre-season odds. The latest Championship betting sees Norwich as short as 6-4 with Ladbrokes to make the playoffs. While Norwich fans will have wanted more than that before the season started, many big clubs are struggling in the Championship and in a much worse position. Teams like Wolves, QPR, Birmingham City, Aston Villa, Ipswich Town and Blackburn Rovers for example.
Is Alex Neil the Problem?
There is no doubt that a growing number of Norwich fans and even people within the club are becoming increasingly frustrated with their manager. A string of poor performances has heaped the pressure on Alex Neil. The defeat to bottom club Rotherham United was perhaps the worst of the lot. So just how has Alex Neil survived? The board decided to back him and presumably they have faith in him. Relegated Premier League teams need to bounce back quickly before players become disgruntled and leave.
If Norwich don’t get promotion this season then they could well become another “Wigan Athletic” and that danger is all too real. The Championship is a tough unforgiving league. There are numerous ex-Premier League teams that have struggled in that division and many were even relegated from it.
The Big Question
A string of poor transfer dealings have left Norwich with a squad that is significantly weaker than they had a couple of years ago. It is common knowledge just how quickly a relegated Premier League team can disintegrate and this makes the process of rapidly getting back a top priority. Should Alex Neil still be in a job right now?
To answer that question we need to ask another highly relevant question. Would he still be in a job at Carrow Road if he hadn’t guided the club through the play-offs and into the Premier League? The answer is surely “no” and keeping faith with a manager based on some previous success is a massive gamble and a recipe for disaster.
Author bio:
Carl Sampson is a full time professional poker player, poker coach and sports writer. Carl also is an extremely avid sports bettor and ex-Betfair trader.
