- Both clubs sacked their managers in November and have been transformed since.
- Clement has dragged Norwich from 23rd to 12th with aggressive, direct football.
- Eckert’s pragmatic Southampton sit 7th, riding an eight-match unbeaten streak.
I’ve spent the last few days convincing myself, with the unneeded help of Southampton, Coventry and Ipswich fans (of course), that tonight doesn’t matter as the playoffs are beyond us.
Some of said opposition supporters have been constructive, some have been touchy, and some have spent the week telling me that we are s**t. I’ll leave you to decide who is who.
But one conclusion that has become clear is that defeat for City tonight will put to bed any daft notions of them gate-crashing the post-season party.
So, based on all the data, form and ‘gut-feel’ available, I’ve taken a deep dive into how ourselves and Saints match up tactically, and if there’s a chancre of our threadbare squad pulling off another miracle.
We all know the context. City have climbed from 23rd to 12th under Philippe Clement, climbing from 23rd to 12th, while Saints sit seventh, eight unbeaten under Tonda Eckert, after a similarly grim start under Will Still.
Both head coaches inherited squads low on belief. Both have generally rebuilt from the back but the similarities end there.
What Clement has changed at Norwich
The Belgian’s first act was, literally, a fitness test. He introduced bleep tests upon arrival and identified physical conditioning as one of the squad’s biggest problems. The numbers back him up: under Liam Manning, 70% of goals conceded came in the second half. Under Clement, it is a 50/50 split.
Tactically, his base shape is a 4-2-3-1, but in settled possession, it can morph into something closer to a 2-3-5, with five players sometimes occupying the opposition’s last line.
Vladan Kovacevic, in goal, can push between the centre-backs to help the first phase, full-backs push high or move infield, and Kenny McLean either drops between the centre-backs or, alternatively, advances from a six into an eight role. The whole thing is designed to stretch defences vertically and horizontally at the same time.
City spend only 18% of match time trailing
The biggest shift from the Manning era is directness. Norwich’s high turnovers (winning possession within 40 metres of the opposition goal) have upped from 5.5 per game to 7.4, the fifth-highest rate in the Championship. Under Clement, City spend only 18% of match time trailing (fourth best in the league) and 37% winning (fifth best). They now look to set the tempo rather than react to it.
How Southampton have become awkward opponents
Eckert’s philosophy is almost the opposite. Where Clement wants to impose, Eckert wants to remove chaos, similar to what Johannes Hoff Thorup tried to implement.
Southampton led the Championship in possession under Still at 59.4%. Under Eckert, that has dropped to roughly 52% as results have improved. Long passes have risen from 10.7% to 13.3% during their unbeaten run. Saints are now willing to concede territory if it means controlling the game.
“I would prefer to win an ugly game rather than lose a beautiful one,” Eckert said.
uses a 3-4-3 to manage games
He is tactically flexible, too. Against league leaders Coventry on Saturday, he switched to a 4-1-4-1 with Cam Bragg as a lone six, allowing Flynn Downes and Caspar Jander to push higher and create overloads. He also uses a 3-4-3 to manage games and, in theory, reduce risk.
One notable stat for City to be aware of: Southampton’s defenders have scored 16 goals this season, the most in the Championship. Taylor Harwood-Bellis leads the division with five from set pieces alone.
Where this game swings
The first ‘battleground’, for the want of a better expression, is City’s press against Saints’ build-up. Clement’s side will hunt the ball high. Eckert’s response will likely be to bypass it, going longer to their lone striker, who, against Coventry (who they beat 2-1), was Cyle Larin.
The second is out wide. Jack Stacey and/or Kellen Fisher and Ben Chrisene are encouraged to overlap in Clement’s 2-3-5. That leaves space behind, which opponents, especially away from home, always look to exploit.
The third is obvious … central midfield. If Eckert uses the 4-1-4-1 again, Bragg’s screening role could suffocate City’s desire to get Anis Ben Slimane or Paris Maghoma on the ball, even before we get into that 2-3-5 shape.
All of which means very little if the same City turns up that struggled in Saturday’s second half against PNE. Tactics matter, but without a decent performance level to back them up, the game becomes tricky, regardless of opponent and shape.
But… big but, this City team has confidence and momentum, and is better organised and more aggressive than at any point this season.
If Southampton are to beat us, and they might, they will have to play well. That much I do know.
OTBC.
